Apple put the ‘Networks’ in their place

Posted on by ewand

Having just read Andrew Orlowski’s article over on The Register, it chimes exactly with a belief I’ve had since the original iPhone came out and showed a clean pair of heels to pretty much every other single device: someone had to put the mobile operator networks in their place, and only Apple were in the right place & time to do it.

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As I’ve said previously on here, I’ve been a fan of Windows Mobile since day one, and I recall the frustration with the first generation Smartphones, that the mobile operators exerted so much influence not just on what the device would look like, but what software capabilities it had. The whole design of the application locking of Smartphone (which is the single biggest impediment to the easy spread of applications, a la the Apple App Store), was down to operators demanding that degree of control over the devices… or else there’d be no room on the networks for them.

In some ways, Apple’s brazen approach to the iPhone and it choosing the networks, rather than the other way round, has helped turn the industry on its head. I’m sure Google would have found a way to market with Android, but the fact that T-Mobile doesn’t offer the iPhone (in the US, at least) sure made it a lot more receptive to the boys from Mountain View, I’d wager.

It can be a dangerous game looking to the past for analogies that will prove future outcomes …

Look at the mess in the financial markets as proof – the CFO of Goldman Sachs said in the summer of 2007 that they were seeing 25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row… *

… but what Apple has done to break the shackles of the network operator, could be equivalent in effect to what happened at the dawn of the PC compatible industry. Through a combination of reverse engineering the original PC BIOS, and the fact that the software – DOS – was available from the same guys who provided it to IBM, the control that Big Blue exerted on the design, supply and pricing of that market was effectively wrested from them, initially by a rag-tag of would-be competitors (though some did make it, such as Compaq).

Just like the fixed-line phone companies have had to reinvent their business models numerous times – see Bob Cringley’s archive for lots of commentary on this hobby horse – maybe history will relegate mobile network operators to being a connection utility rather than controlling the content and the whole user experience, as they at one point wanted to do.

Still, Apple has a lot still to do, to be the saviour of the industry … it could still end up as a footnote in the history of this part of the race, with someone else coming along to take the finish line.

//E

* … meaning their predictive statistical model that was based on historical events, was telling them that things that will statistically NEVER HAPPEN were occurring regularly. What does that tell you? The model is now WRONG.

According to Tim Hartford from the FT, who I heard give a talk on this, their models said that:

  • 3 std devs would occur once in every 3 years
  • 4 std devs, once every 126 years
  • 5 std devs, once since the last Ice Age
  • 6 std devs, once since man started walking upright
  • 7 std devs, once in 3 billion years…

… so 25 Std Devs would be something that has never and, statistically, will never, occur.

Formula 1 back on the BBC – only 2 weeks to go…

Posted on by ewand

I haven’t been looking forward to an F1 season as much, for ages – since the Damon Hill years, probably. A number of things are helping to build anticipation:

  • Rule Changes – this year, the FIA has torn up the rule book somewhat by resizing aero components of the cars, introduced hybrid-style energy recovery from braking, moved back to slicks etc.

    The best explanation I’ve seen of all of the changes comes from a cool video from Red Bull…

    •  

  • Honda/Brawn GP looking good – I’m a Honda fan. I like Ross Brawn. I think Jenson Button has been unlucky with the car/team selection for years, and Rubino is the most experienced (and some say, the nicest guy) of all the drivers on the grid. They deserve to do well – and reports from the latest testing indicate they’ve nearly a second faster than everyone else, with defending champ Lewis Hamilton’s Mclaren team looking very much like they’re on the back foot. You can be sure that the Woking lads & lasses won’t be willing to give up the title without a fight…
     
  • BBC Footage – Brundle. Good. Coulthard. Great. Jordan. Legend. Oh, and the trailer footage …

    image … forward to 00:50s into the clip and you’ll find perhaps the best thing about F1 coming back to the BBC…

    The Chain.

Sorted…

Sign of the times: new car registrations

Posted on by ewand

I recall the 1st of August in years gone by, as the day that new car registrations would be released – in the UK, if you didn’t know, car registration numbers are centrally issued and every year, the prefix or suffix letter used to advance. For a young boy, it was really quite exciting to spot the first cars with the new registration, and people buying new cars would wait to take delivery on the 1st August, so their pride & joy would have the latest ‘plate.


A few years ago, the system changed (to try to smooth demand out a bit more, so there wasn’t a huge spike in new car registrations in August, but a dearth in June/July…), to being twice a year, on 1st March and 1st September. The prefix/suffix letter scheme also changed to be a numerical advancement, based on the year.


It’s now the 12th March and I’ve yet to see an “09” registration, even though I’ve been travelling on the motorways most days, and for the last few (since realising this), I’ve been actively looking, but found nothing…


Is this a barmoter of the economic slowdown?

Lessons of over-promise, under-deliver

Posted on by ewand

UPDATE: 28/2/09

Just got an email from the general manager of the restaurant (after my message back to them), graciously admitting to “what can only be described as a complete failure of our internal system”, which has led to the entire team getting more training on the promotion… Thanking me for taking the trouble to write to him following our “ordeal” and in apology for the “catalogue of errors” from last week, he’s going to send us a bottle of Champers. Now that’s what I call rescuing a situation!

Here’s a salutary lesson in how not to deal with a customer who was expecting to spend a lot of money in exchange for a good experience, through inattention to a small detail which was introduced in the first place by the provider of that experience…

6507691_4bb9e818f2[1]

Saturday was Mrs D’s birthday – not a major one, but a special occasion nevertheless. We decided to celebrate by going to a good restaurant – the kind which features on www.viamichelin.com with more than a single star next to it…

I love ViaMichelin. It’s a great resource which shows (on a map) good quality hotels and restaurants, pubs etc, all over the world – the kind of place which is decent and not necessarily too expensive, all the way up to the best of the best. If ever we’re going on a long trip and will need to stop for lunch or dinner, I’ll take a look in VM to see if there’s anywhere nearby … and it’s never let me down.

As it happens, said restaurant sent me email a couple of weeks ago saying they hope I’d enjoyed my visit (even though I’d only made a reservation), and offered me a couple of glasses of pop as an aperitif and a nice glass of wine each with the main course, should we choose to visit again in the near future.

It’s a bit cheeky, but I figured I’d ask them if the offer applied to my existing booking; their customer services mailed me straight back saying they’d informed the restaurant that we’d be on the “Drinks are on us” promo, and they looked forward to seeing us on Saturday. Splendid. Couldn’t wait.

On arrival,when the maître’d asked if we wanted a drink, I discretely said we were on a ‘drinks on us’ promo … (not exactly wanting to shout into the quite-busy lounge area “AH! WE’RE ON A COUPLE OF FREEBIES ACCORDING TO THIS EMAIL <TADA>”).

After wiping his “My goodness, sir, you appear to have sprouted horns on your head” look from his face, he took our name and beetled off to check the reservation. And that was the last he spoke to us, except when I chased him (twice) for the bill, since we were standing in the door, coats on, with the taxi waiting outside..

This is an example of a small piece of poor customer service which actually cast quite a shadow on an expensive meal and what would otherwise have been a memorable evening for all the right reasons. They had offered me something free of charge which I was surprised and delighted about, but then manifestly failed to deliver, and I didn’t want to make a fuss on the night.

I sent mail to the customer services lady (who had corresponded quickly and efficiently before), expressing my disappointment – as yet (3+ days later)… nothing.

So what’s the lesson here [see? this isn’t just a rant and rave]?

The actions and inactions of a few people executing on something that was essentially unimportant and which was offered and not asked for, partly cancelled out all the work of the people who prepared the ingredients, made the great food, designed & built the venue, the guy who played the piano etc etc.

Makes me hope that I don’t ever fail to do something which in effect ruins the hard work of everyone else…

HTC s740 – great phone, just one thing…

Posted on by ewand

I got one of these things a couple of weeks ago… in essence, a great large1[1]phone (I prefer the “smartphone” type device as opposed to the touch screen variety) – I’ve spent the last couple of years with the HTC s620 and it was time for a change. Key differences are that the s740 is a “candybar” type device rather than a squatter, wider phone, and has a slide-out keyboard rather than the full qwerty affair on the front.

Technology wise, the new device is bristling with features – 3G/HSDPA (so nice & fast browsing), GPS (paired with Google Maps or Windows Live Search mobile, works well). It even has an FM radio and a half decent camera.

I’ve written recently about nicely designed, functional items which remind & reinforce how good they are every time you pick them up or use them – well the s740 has one design feature which does the exact opposite.

EVERY time I use it as a phone, I curse the stupid design of the Call & Hang up buttons.

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Those tiny little buttons that stand just proud of the sleek and shiny surface of the phone? Impossible to hit them without also pressing the soft keys above, or the home or back keys below. Well not quite impossible, but requires dextrous thumbnail gymnastics to use them.

Now I’d have thought that for a PHONE, these two buttons are kind of the most important? I’m not the only one, as PC Pro opined. It’s a shame – the s620 doesn’t look as groovy, but it does have an easier to use keyboard, and phone buttons that work. If only it was 3G and had a GPS…

Happy 1,234,567,890 seconds since 1/1/1970

Posted on by ewand

image

Well there’s a thing. CNET reported that today officially marks the 1.2-odd billion seconds past the beginning of 1970, a standard that’s used in UNIX (and by the C programming language) as the basis for all time measurements. If you’re reading this before 23:31:30 on Friday 13/2/09 then you can see the countdown clock on http://coolepochcountdown.com/. Who knows what will happen after?

Actually, let’s hope they figure out how to patch all Unix (or 32-bit C) systems before 03:14:08 19th January 2038, otherwise we could all be in big trouble. Unix time is typically represented by a signed 32-bit integer (so has 2^31 positive values, ergo 2,147,483,648), and maybe we’ll be dealing with Y2k38 or something like that.

Apparently there was some debate about whether to use a signed or unsigned integer here – Dennis Ritchie (inventor of C and co-creator of Unix) figured it would be quite nice to numerically represent all the days he would live (since he was born in 1941, and if they’d used an unsigned integer, then time would have started in 1970 …)

Fortunately, modern Windows systems aren’t quite so dependent on this time code, though it is still heavily used. If you’re really interested in this field, there’s a comprehensive post on the oldnewthing MSDN blog. Turns out the Common Language Runtime (bedrock of .NET development) counts in 100-nanosecond intervals since the 1st of January “0001”.

Cor.

Business continuity – it’s a people thing, not just a premises one

Posted on by ewand

27[1] I had a really interesting discussion with a customer last week, when we were musing over the effects that the snow had on UK businesses. It was another example – like the floods which have hit parts of the country over the last few years – of a threat to business continuity which it’s easy to overlook.

Most businesses have prepared some contingency for what IT should do when it all goes wrong – starting with individual equipment failure (using RAID disks, redundant power supplies & the like), to clustering of services and replication of data to be able to survive bigger losses, either temporarily (like a power cut) or for longer-term outages (like loss of connectivity to a datacentre, maybe even loss of the datacentre itself).

What the weather conditions taught us the other day was that the people are even more important than the premises – the customer said it was ironic, that all their systems were up and running well, it was just that nobody was there to consume them.

Warwick Ashford from Computer Weekly writes about how their publisher, Reed Business Information, has built remote access into their business continuity plans. Interestingly, most of the discussion focussed on how to use VPN technology to connect to the office.

Funny, really. With Outlook & Office Communicator not needing to use a VPN to securely connect back to my office, I spent most of the WFH-time connected, productive, but not using a VPN at all.

Custom presence states in OCS – revisited again

Posted on by ewand

imageI posted a while back about custom presence states (here and here). Well it turns out that a change made to an updated version of Communicator, requires (by default) that the custom state XML file is downloaded from a “secure” URL (so ruling out the file:// URL type).


I’ve posted my XML file to SkyDrive (since it’s available with an SSL connection and tends to be available from everywhere).


If you want to use the same URL, just open the following registry file and it will point your Communicator client at my XML file…


Registry file


Otherwise, add your own URL to the registry at


HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SOFTWARE
\Policies\Microsoft\Communicator
in a string value called CustomStateURL.


(tip – if you don’t trust me, download the REG file and drag/drop it into Notepad to verify that it’s not going to do bad things to your machine).

When the weather outside is frightful…

Posted on by ewand

… the UC technology is soooo delightful.

OK, it’s cheesy as you can get, but very true. The weather forecast on Sunday night was for heavy snow, and sure enough we awoke on Monday to about 4-6 inches of fresh snow – something that many countries would take in their stride, but in southern England, we just don’t have the infrastructure to cope. [since it’s such a rare event].

I had decided on Sunday night that I was probably going to stay at home, so changed all the face/face meetings I had scheduled for Monday, to phone/video calls.

One director at Microsoft sent an e-mail round to his team on Monday morning:

SNOW CHANGE: Team meeting to be changed LIVE MEETING ONLY! DO NOT DRIVE!

I have been clearly informed that South England does not own snowploughs. And as I look out the window at the 5 inches of snow with no snow tires on my car, as a Canadian who has driven in very big snow storms, I know when not to drive – and this is one of those times. It will be too risky. So, we will probably trim the meeting to the MYR presentation and maybe 2 other topic. More to come – but don’t drive! Looking forward to our meeting – ‘see’ you all there :-).

Thanks;

Michael

I also had a half-day partner meeting which had been scheduled for weeks; that was converted to a Live Meeting so everyone could join remotely. In this instance, the actual partners were stuck on motorways, or holed up at the airport, so in the end it was rearranged for another day.

It was amazing to see how, if the infrastructure is in place to allow it, some companies just flick to having (nearly) everyone work remotely and it not drastically affect productivity. OCS Product Manager Sean Olson wrote about the “Snow Day” phenomenon that happens to Redmond every so often.

In fact, in the mid-December incident hit the news over here, with a bus skidding through a barrier and hanging over the I-5 freeway. Here’s an article with a great VR picture of the scene.

As it happens, we released OCS 2007 R2 yesterday. Also, there’s a report which should be published soon, looking into the business impact of deploying UC at Microsoft, using Forrester Research’s methodology for measuring business value.

The outcome? The RoI for Unified Comms is so clear that it paid for its procurement & deployment in 2 months.

Look what I found in my loft: a 9-year old netbook

Posted on by ewand

I splashed out a week or two ago, and bought a Samsung NC10 netbook – a bargain at under £300, and it runs Windows 7 really well.

Impressed with the size and utility of the thing, I recalled a forerunner of the netbook, so went rooting around in my “box of old technology that it pretty much useless but cost money so I can’t ever throw it away”, in the loft.

I came across an old laptop that in its time was known as a “sub-notebook”: we got two of these machines courtesy of Sony, to demonstrate Exchange 2000, specifically the Conferencing Server version, at a big partner event in Birmingham. It was, to date, the biggest audience I’ve ever stood in front of, at about 1,400 people. I had a few minutes to demo the still-in-beta Exchange 2000, and would be doing it jointly with the host for the conference, Jonathan Ross (gulp).

Exchange 2000 Conferencing Server – aka “Jasper”

I’m now struggling to remember when this was, but since Exchange 2000 released in November 2000 (as discovered by the very useful Microsoft Support Lifecycle page), I reckon it must have been early/mid-2000, which would mean the little Vaio has to be at least 8 or 9 years old.

Sony Vaio PCG-C1XN

The two Vaios we had were great – well, great for the time anyway, although even then they were very functionally compromised even when new. The one thing you could say about the machine was it was small, and cool.

vaioCertainly not fast – a 266MHz Celeron CPU (a cut down Pentium II, in essence, for our younger readers), 64Mb of RAM and a 6.4Gb hard disk.

The machines originally came with Windows 98, but we decided to put Windows 2000 on them for the demo; subsequently, I upgraded it to Windows XP and it’s probably a bit too much for the little mite. Suffice to say, it won’t be getting any further along the Windows evolutionary scale.

Other features of note were the webcam (one of – if not the – first laptops to come with one built in, which was the reason we wanted them for the Conferencing demo). A single USB port, FireWire (or iLink as Sony insisted on calling it), a PCMCIA slot, infra-red (you don’t get that any more now, do you?) and a dongle which had composite-video and VGA, complete the mix.

So for our demo we had to install an early Wifi network (it might have been the very first 802.11b from Compaq, costing hundreds of pounds for the router and at least £100 per PCMCIA card). All of this for 8 minutes of Woss-y glory, swept away in the sands of time.

Sony never did ask for it back – I hung onto one, and Steve kept the other. I bet he’s still got it somewhere too.

Dust the old girl off

Enough of this misty eyed nonsense. Amazingly, on plugging the machine in and powering up (apart from my going into the BIOS and setting the clock), it started to resume from hibernate – and dropped me back into the logon prompt for WinXP. I had some head scratching to do, to remember the password – but when I logged in, it was the first time for 6 years and 3 months.

P1010112

 P1010113

Surprisingly, the Vaio is about the same thickness as my Samsung, so it doesn’t look quite as archaic as you might expect a 9-year old laptop to.

It could even be called a “Netbook”, except there’s no networking on the thing – certainly no wireless, and even dial-up would have required an old modem like the Xircom PCMCIA card I literally just found in my office drawer.

Probably the biggest difference is the price when new. Adjusting for inflation and taking into account what the Vaio would have originally cost, it’s probably nearer £3,000 than the £300 for my NC10.

That’s Moore’s law for ya.